MTBF value

  • Thread starter Ana Carina Lemos
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Ana Carina Lemos

I would like to use a MTBF value to calculate when will be the next failure of my equipament? Where I can get more information about this subject and equation?
I hope this is just a spoof message! The MTBF is by definition the Average (Mean) time for a failure - it cannot be used to predict when your specific plant will fail.

The "bathtub" curve for electronic equipment failure rate shows high "infant mortality" followed by a steady failure rate, and then an increasing "senility" failure rate.

I wish there was a reliable way of predicting plant failure.

It is a common misconception, but that is *not* what an MTBF value will tell you. Knowing the MTBF is 50 years in NO way means the device will last 50 years! It merely means that one device out of 50 fails in a given year, but you still do not know which device, or when during the year. Predictive maintenance and other monitoring techniques can be used to 'predict' failures of certain devices.

Paul Gruhn, P.E., C.F.S.E.
Safety & Reliability Specialist
Siemens, Houston, TX