I ran across a guy recently that I have known for nearly 20 years, but had not seen for a year or two. He has sold just about every brand of PLC and automation equipment (except AB) during that time.

He is now selling insurance, having decided that there is no real future in the industrial automation business.

I got to thinking about it, and at least around here the sheer quantities of people leaving the industrial automation field (in sales, SIs, panel builders, and engineering) is staggering.

Who is going to take up that slack if/when things turn around?

 

Hi Bob

We will.
If you want to buy it, it will come.

Regards

cww

 

In five or ten years you will see the same phenom in engineering that you now see in health care (shortage of nurses). There will be a serious shortage of qualified engineers and technicians as the veterans retire or move to other fields. Couple this with the significant drop in enrollment in the schools of engineering, and "presto" you have a shortage.

I do not know that there is any solution. This cycle has happened before, and will probably happen again as the economy goes through business cycles.

 

I have been a process control engineer since 1962 and still finding plenty of work, but it is now in mining. There have been two major shifts in the industry in the last decade and I don't think either will turn around.

Shift 1. Many world resources are now oversupplied. When a new ammonia plant comes on line, three old ones close. Same with oil and gas, coal fired power stations etc. Environmental awareness has caused big shifts - EG wind farms instead of coal-fired power stations. So we are building far less new infrastructure and this is not going to change.

Shift 2. Most components are now very cheap with lots of competing designs and are generally plug-and-play. So control engineers with deep nuts-and-bolts knowledge are needed much less.

Conclusion: good process control engineers will become a bit like farriers or blacksmiths with far less demand for them. But those who survive will be able to do well as good process control skills will be rare and a smaller demand will continue with higher salaries or fees for the good ones. I think the answer is either become really skilled and get a good reputation or do something else like selling insurance.

This is just the result of 40 years of experience for what it is worth.

Paul Wilson

 

If that's what you're waiting for, then you better go to the local temple or church, get on your knees, and burn a lot of incense! The slack is being taken up by 3rd world engineers. Virtually all automation companies are not looking for professional employees. Rather, they cherry-pick new graduates, work them a few years, and then let them go. That's way your friend sells insurance (or real estate, or has gone back to school to learn a real profession). For example, a friend of mine is a VP at a large automation company. When I asked him for a job, he admitted that they are not looking for professional, experienced, top-notch people....rather, they want naive, new graduates to exploit until the graduates wise up, quit or are fired, and then try to go on to real professions with security and money.

 

A better question might be: Who IS taking the slack? Check the "Time to Fight Back" article in last month's (SEP) copy of Control Magazine (pg. #63 - Control Report). Rich Merritt's answer to our question(s) might scare a few of us into action, or into following your friend's foot-steps. Check it out.

 

The last cycle was not that long ago. In the mid to late 90's, I can remember whn anyone who had ever seen a PLC was a control engineer getting premium prices. It was sad to see people paying good money for sheer incompetants, but that was often all that was available.

Bob Peterson

 

A small stroll in history will put everything in focus:
Industrial revolution... mechanicals needed
Pneumatics controls introduced... mechanicals and process needed
relay/electrical controls introduced... process and electricals needed
PLC/DCS/software based controls... electricals and programmers needed
futur controls... probably programmers and "others"

The automation industry is NOT dying but evolving just like any other industry. The key is to stay on top of the changes and evolve along with it. When one gets lazy and doesn't keep up, one quickly falls away. The climb back up will just get keep getting harder and harder.

So who will take up the slack...the "grunt" workers, the ones who keep studying and learning and evolving, all others will fall by the wayside.

 

Michel, Speaking as a "Grunt" I totally agree with you as to the future of all industry. The question is. What is the direction of the industry? What do we study? Where do we learn?
I want to work hard and evolve to meet the future needs! What does your crystal ball tell you??

 

When it turns around? In the US, it will NOT turn around.

US manufacturing base continues to erode.

There are fewer and fewer customers for more and more suppliers.

Margins continue to erode. Why do you think Rockwell has decided to try to make money on softare support. To see the answer, price a PLC on Automation Direct's web site.

I like the mining business comment previously made. Problem is that EVERYONE is chasing that business.

What's the name of the insurance company that nees salesmen again?

 

Don't be so pessimistic. Manufacturing employment as a percent of the workforce has been declining since 1955. That doesn't mean that the manufacture of goods is declining. It means we have automated so many processes. And there is a lot more automation yet to do as soon as the profits allow. In addition, the service sector, which now employs over 80% of the workforce, is beginning to
become automated. Look at the automation that has already
taken place in the medical field, post office, etc. You may need to sell insurance for a brief period to get through a short downturn, but I wouldn't burn my automation bridges just yet. Remember also that the fewer qualifications it takes for a job (like selling insurance), the more people will be vying for it and the less it will pay. I wouldn't encouage my kids to work in manufacturing, but I certainly would encouage them to be automation experts.

Tom
Thomas B. Bullock, President
Industrial Controls Consulting Div.
Bull's Eye Marketing, Inc.
104 S. Main St., Suite 320
Fond du Lac, WI 54935
Ph: 920: 929-6544
Fax: 920: 929-9344
E-mail: [email protected]

 

And the less expensive model coming down the pike will
open many new opportunities that aren't high ROI items.
We're simply stuck on a plateau by the massively parallel
sameness of the tools and singularity of the model. As we
get more choices and different classes, there will be lots
of things to automate. This could be greatly accellerated
if the majors would quit fence fighting on connectivity
and adopt _something_ that can be taken for granted, so
they can devote more resources to improvement. It takes a
lot longer to build houses if each builder has to start
with trees and iron ore. Let commodities be commodities.
Compute engines and networks are commodities.

Regards

cww