C
Curt Wuollet
> Curt, you've said some interesting things. But I didn't say that I was > advocating a grand scheme. > > I said that _right now_ IN THE TRENCHES, there are people working like > dogs to build the bridges you say are impossible. They are building Gates, not bridges. And I didn't say anything of the sort. They need four lane bi-directional bridges not single lane toll bridges. Bridges that can connect anything. > Why? Because we have reached the level of diminishing returns from > automation. There. I said it. The emperor has no clothes. > > We reached the level of diminishing returns from automation in the First > World about five years ago, and if you look at the activity, both in the > field and in the boardroom, since then, you can see it plainly. The > round of M&A activity started because the First World market for just > control systems has shrunk tremendously. And they are going in the wrong direction. Watch what happens to the stock of the first one to break ranks and make a deal with RedHat or Lineo. Or pledges to try to solve the "Tower of Babel" or interoperability problems. Demings definition of insanity is where you keep doing the same thing over and over and expect the results to be different. The proprietary divisive paradigm has failed. IBM knows that, GE,AB and others don't get it. Modicon has an inkling, Microsoft is in denial, but learning fast. Making systems that don't interconnect and don't interoperate is not going to get you anyplace in IT with the realities of today. > Notice how many of the major controls companies have become actively > involved in "back office" and MES projects. All of them. Notice how > many of the major controls companies have become actively involved in > CRM and SCM. All of them. Walt, you're preaching to the choir. This is gonna happen. What's holding it back is that they are only addressing Microsoft shops. > Notice how the big analysts, Gartner and ARC, have repositioned > themselves. Yes, they are now giving the server market to Linux. > Notice that jobs in the automation sector are declining, while jobs > _doing the same thing_ in the technology sector are expanding at 50% per > year. exactly. > > You may want to suggest that IT can't handle control. Lots of us fondly > believe that. I'd be the last one to suggest that. I know they will. Don't get too comfortable, I think the IT folks can do more automation than the automation folks can do IT. I was IT a couple years ago. I do just fine. IT _will_ take over this middle ground and they will do it their way because that simply makes a lot more sense and their tools cost a fraction of what the Automation vendors will push. They know a network card is $25.00 not $1000.00 and having a hundred different protocols is just plain stupid. This, by the way is who pushed Ethernet into automation. You are saying that this is going to be accomplished by automation folks pushing up. I say it will be the IT folks pushing down. When you compare proposals it will be: Hoards of servers running expensive proprietary stuff with crazy licensing schemes and expensive proprietary networks versus "Oh, we can do it by putting in a router and tying it into our existing LAN" Who do you think is gonna win that one? We both see the same picture, All I'm saying is that IT is gonna fix a lot of broken things on the way. And the automation vendors won't stand a chance with their tunnel vision tuned to only Redmond. > But the fact is, IT is _in_ control. Because the information that the > control system can put out is important, yes, but it is not anywhere > nearly as important as the information that can be bundled with it, and > the information that integrated requirements and supply systems can send > to it. > That's why Automation vendors have to start offering more than toys that connect to office applications. On real platforms that scale and integrate well. IT is not likely to change to meet your automation integration needs. > Synergy is savings. Corporate management understands that. > > You can turn this into a diatribe against Microsoft, if you want. But > that whole argument is entirely beside the point. Much "back office" > work isn't on MS platforms at all. Much of this is on "x"nix and Linux > platforms. Much of it is on MS platforms. I didn't mention MS specifically but the fact that everyone knew who I'm talking about serves to point out the problem. And no it is not beside the point. I work in UNIX shops. I can't do the integration because there are no offerings that will integrate well with UNIX. I am a Linux consultant. I can't sell the integration because there are no Linux compatible offerings. How can that possibly be beside the point. What you say only works in your world. And the automation vendors have their heads in the sand on this point. UNIX is not going away except to be overtaken soon by Linux and IT likes Linux. > What I am saying is that if you want to advance in the new world of > manufacturing, you must be not only cognizant, but also up to date with, where automation fits into the enterprise. But, you can't ignore where the enterprise is going and that's away from MS in large part and towards HA clusters and Java and other technologies that no one is addressing. Windows everywhere was yesterday. IT has a choice. Tell me a way of integrating with a Sun shop or a Linux shop that isn't a horrific kludge. Now tell me _why_ it's such a kludge. Closed systems are poor choices for integration. Regards cww